Saturday, December 29, 2012

No one washes a rental car? Wethinks not:)

Rental Car Agent: Would you like to purchase the renter's insurance? 
Jerry: Yeah, you better give me the insurance because I'm going to beat the HELL out of this thing. 


While it is true... people may have a tendency to use 15 towels at a hotel sometimes... there is another side to the story.

In fact, evidence is starting to suggest that people borrowing and renting things from other people, not corporations - are not only returning items in good condition, but returning them in BETTER condition than they received them. 

The golden rule is coming true:)

We recently lent out a camera  as part of an experiment - and it came back with a charger and a travel bag. We have had steam cleaners returned to other members with extra cleaning solution. Someone borrowed a tent and returned it with a bottle of wine from a vineyard near where they camped out.

And even personally, when I stayed at an Airbnb - I treated the place better than my own apartment:) I didn't even think of using more than one towel... even though, in my sordid past I may have used 2 in a hotel! 

When people have a vested interest in sharing and when it is personal... the tragedy of the commons turns into a romantic comedy of the commons. 

Sunday, December 23, 2012

It's not about FREE, it's about FREEquency

Many people believe that borrowing is synonymous with free. I believe borrowing has more to do with the temporary nature of the use, and less to do with the price of access.

I believe that systems like neighborrow are a success when they increase the velocity of turnover and overall frequency of use -- especially for items whose marginal cost of additional uses per lifetime is near zero.

Therefore, our job is to identify the items themselves where high velocity is desirable -then create and design systems, infrastructures, and business models to facilitate high frequency turnover.

There are a ton of smart people trying to solve this problem, with limited success: here's what I think the next phase should look like. It has nothing to do with p2p trust, or existing (free) supply- like many of us thought in the beginning...




  1. NOT FREE - the point is to get HIGH QUALITY, DURABLE GOODS, that have enough demand to be used over and over again... these items cost money to introduce to the system. Someone (either the individual owner, or the site) needs to be motivated to purchase, maintain, and deliver these items. Business models that create a hot potato effect will work best. Users should be motivated to use the item and pass it on as quickly as possible. Some bike sharing systems are doing this well, making the first hour relatively cheap and extra time is disproportionally more expensive. This pricing model runs counter to the buy in bulk dynamics we are used to- but it makes sense. It provides incentive for the rider to put the bike back and re-borrow another one on the ride home. This model maximizes exposure. 
  2. CONVENIENCE IS KEY - the model above only works if is incredibly easy to access the items in need at exactly the right times and exactly the right places. Cameras for rent at airports and tourist attractions and in Airbnb houses. Drills and other tools in member only lockers at Whole Foods. 
  3. THE ITEMS THEMSELVES must be designed better. More durable. More flexible. One size fits all. Built in accessories. 

When we start solving these problems, and stop trying to build systems to help people share things no one wants for free- or stop thinking trust is the issue when people on Craigslist meet strangers EVERY day when it's worth it to sell a concert ticket... we will be one step closer to solving this important problem!



Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Lights, camera, no action! An experimental story...



  • Perfectly MINIMUM - Any more would be a waste. Any less... well, how much less can you do than a FB post. 
  • Perfectly VIABLE - Anyone who truly wanted to borrow this camera for $20 a day would, at LEAST, understand the value proposition and be in a position to act on it.
  • Perfectly EXPERIMENTAL - An experiment is defined (by Wikipedia) as "A scientific procedure undertaken to make a discovery, test a hypothesis, or demonstrate a known fact".  In this case we were testing a hypothesis: I believed that at least one person would make a comment to reserve and show intent to pay to borrow this camera for at least one day. That was the minimum... I actually believed that with the right amount of page views, that I could have bookings that paid for more than half of the camera's value in 6 months time.

5000 views, 1 share, 5 comments (excluding my own)... = ZERO REQUESTS TO BORROW.

Requests are the true metric in this experiment, followed by payments. The rest are, as Eric Ries says, vanity metricsThe failure of this experiment shows 2 important things... 

  1. The value of testing and Lean in general - Not only could I have gone through the cost and expense of building an entire social network compete with reservation features, payment features, product listing, etc - I did! I now teach Lean as a way to help other people avoid the same mistakes...
  2. The fallacy that adding more people to the "funnel" will have an impact on conversion rates. For some reason, smart entrepreneurs have the ability to convince themselves that when something is not working, the solution is to show it to more people. The logic does not hold up. There was no point in figuring out the right distribution channel or the true economics of this venture before figuring out how to get ONE PERSON to pay and convert. 
Now, Lean does not teach people to give up after the first experiment. It is possible that this experiment was flawed in ways that I hope the comments reveal. But it is certainly more scientific and much faster to test this hypothesis with a Facebook post than with a full working web platform built from scratch. It is also incredibly empowering for non engineers to be able to run their own experiments. 

By the way... it's an experiment... but the camera really is available if you want it! (and ready to pay:)

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Example of premature optimization

Will update the formatting when I can figure it out... but to the Lean folks out there, this is enough:) but :(

neighborrow




50037VISITORS
1679CONVERSIONS
3.36%CONVERSION RATE
Created about a year ago, updated 25 days ago. Last Published 25 days ago.groups landing page Edit Notes »



A/B Test Centre


Current Champion

WeightVisitorsViewsConversionsConversion Rate
AEDT_Form_Press_save3__prpltextCTAUpdated 25 days ago
8%325652791534.70%

Challenger Page Variants

Confidence
CThe easiest way. Examples. Shitty.Updated about a year ago
0%2200.00%-100%0%
Dsmaller and centered, More links, header simplified, photoUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
Ephoto instead of gradient, slightly hard to read text?Updated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
Fsmall and centered, easier to read, example textUpdated about a year ago
0%1100.00%-100%0%
Iu and me in consumeUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
Ku and me in consume copyUpdated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
LDT 1Updated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
MDT 2Updated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
NDT_Button_No Press_money_resources_communityUpdated about a year ago
1%1399204319213.72%191%100%
ODT 1 copyUpdated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
Psmall and centered, easier to digest, example text copyUpdated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
QDT_Button_v1_PressUpdated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
RDT_Button_v2_email formUpdated about a year ago
0%7512500.00%-100%0%
SDT_Button_No Press _shareUpdated about a year ago
0%2753374114.91%217%100%
Ttagline u and meUpdated about a year ago
0%1341521511.19%138%99%
Upotential. ume. arrows. cleanUpdated about a year ago
0%
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
Xpublic_mail_freebie_nationUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
YDT_21%_Press_addedUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
ABDT_Form_Press_create_search_shareUpdated about a year ago
0%2223043616.22%245%100%
ACDT_Form_Press_create_search_share_leftUpdated about a year ago
1%8001225627.75%64%99%
ADDT_Button_Press_1/16Updated about a year ago
1%6881053578.29%76%99%
AFIndividual_Need_Have_SaveUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
AIDont be a knucklehead. EmailUpdated 4 months ago
5%18983100492.58%-45%99%
AJI need a... (with video and press)Updated about a year ago
0%0000.00%no delta0%
AKvideoUpdated about a year ago
1%42483000.00%-100%0%
ALPersonal RequestUpdated about a year ago
1%478757204.18%-10%38%
AMI need a (genius)Updated about a year ago
1%504856132.58%-45%96%
ANI need a (search)Updated 5 months ago
5%420269011052.50%-46%100%
AOI need a (hello)Updated about a year ago
5%26364158712.69%-42%99%
APVideo / Paid groupsUpdated about a year ago
1%45875500.00%-100%0%
AQBy event not itemUpdated about a year ago
1%606917132.15%-54%99%
AVI need a (search) (challenger) (twitter)Updated about a year ago
1%576873162.78%-40%96%
AWFirst time.Updated 4 months ago
5%7000110133144.49%-4%37%
AXFirst time. copyUpdated 10 months ago
5%27534472622.25%-52%100%
AZFirst time. social mediaUpdated about a year ago
5%22623698301.33%-71%100%
BAdesign/imageUpdated 6 months ago
5%28574695943.29%-29%99%
BBneed something? just ask [moved]Updated 6 months ago
2%24504346210.86%-81%100%
BCg'tee simpleUpdated 4 months ago
1%12942377211.62%-65%100%
BDSIMPLEUpdated 25 days ago
20%8131136161061.30%-72%100%
BEwrong way funnyUpdated 25 days ago
5%21043453200.95%-79%100%
BFdesignUpdated 25 days ago
20%914130130.33%-93%0%

Discarded Page Variants

AFirst VariantUpdated about a year ago
0%2300.00%
HMore links, header simplified, photo copyUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%
VDT_Button_No Press_create_search_shareUpdated about a year ago
0%4676737616.27%
WpublicUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%
Zget emailUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%
AADT_Button_No Press_constant_contactUpdated about a year ago
0%1161571916.38%
AGRequestUpdated about a year ago
0%0000.00%
AHI need aUpdated about a year ago
0%262388197.25%
ARI need a (search) (no email)Updated about a year ago
0%3232928.13%
ASI need a (search/request)Updated about a year ago
0%8811244.54%
ATI need a (search/request) removed black fieldsUpdated about a year ago
0%9712666.19%
AUI need a (hello) verifiedUpdated 5 months ago
0%21235831.42%
AYFirst time. copy copyUpdated about a year ago
0%362503298.01%
Overall:100%500378099116793.36%