Monday, January 21, 2013
Saturday, December 29, 2012
No one washes a rental car? Wethinks not:)
Rental Car Agent: Would you like to purchase the renter's insurance?
Jerry: Yeah, you better give me the insurance because I'm going to beat the HELL out of this thing.
While it is true... people may have a tendency to use 15 towels at a hotel sometimes... there is another side to the story.
In fact, evidence is starting to suggest that people borrowing and renting things from other people, not corporations - are not only returning items in good condition, but returning them in BETTER condition than they received them.
The golden rule is coming true:)
We recently lent out a camera as part of an experiment - and it came back with a charger and a travel bag. We have had steam cleaners returned to other members with extra cleaning solution. Someone borrowed a tent and returned it with a bottle of wine from a vineyard near where they camped out.
And even personally, when I stayed at an Airbnb - I treated the place better than my own apartment:) I didn't even think of using more than one towel... even though, in my sordid past I may have used 2 in a hotel!
And even personally, when I stayed at an Airbnb - I treated the place better than my own apartment:) I didn't even think of using more than one towel... even though, in my sordid past I may have used 2 in a hotel!
When people have a vested interest in sharing and when it is personal... the tragedy of the commons turns into a romantic comedy of the commons.
Sunday, December 23, 2012
It's not about FREE, it's about FREEquency
Many people believe that borrowing is synonymous with free. I believe borrowing has more to do with the temporary nature of the use, and less to do with the price of access.
I believe that systems like neighborrow are a success when they increase the velocity of turnover and overall frequency of use -- especially for items whose marginal cost of additional uses per lifetime is near zero.
Therefore, our job is to identify the items themselves where high velocity is desirable -then create and design systems, infrastructures, and business models to facilitate high frequency turnover.
There are a ton of smart people trying to solve this problem, with limited success: here's what I think the next phase should look like. It has nothing to do with p2p trust, or existing (free) supply- like many of us thought in the beginning...
I believe that systems like neighborrow are a success when they increase the velocity of turnover and overall frequency of use -- especially for items whose marginal cost of additional uses per lifetime is near zero.
Therefore, our job is to identify the items themselves where high velocity is desirable -then create and design systems, infrastructures, and business models to facilitate high frequency turnover.
There are a ton of smart people trying to solve this problem, with limited success: here's what I think the next phase should look like. It has nothing to do with p2p trust, or existing (free) supply- like many of us thought in the beginning...
- NOT FREE - the point is to get HIGH QUALITY, DURABLE GOODS, that have enough demand to be used over and over again... these items cost money to introduce to the system. Someone (either the individual owner, or the site) needs to be motivated to purchase, maintain, and deliver these items. Business models that create a hot potato effect will work best. Users should be motivated to use the item and pass it on as quickly as possible. Some bike sharing systems are doing this well, making the first hour relatively cheap and extra time is disproportionally more expensive. This pricing model runs counter to the buy in bulk dynamics we are used to- but it makes sense. It provides incentive for the rider to put the bike back and re-borrow another one on the ride home. This model maximizes exposure.
- CONVENIENCE IS KEY - the model above only works if is incredibly easy to access the items in need at exactly the right times and exactly the right places. Cameras for rent at airports and tourist attractions and in Airbnb houses. Drills and other tools in member only lockers at Whole Foods.
- THE ITEMS THEMSELVES must be designed better. More durable. More flexible. One size fits all. Built in accessories.
When we start solving these problems, and stop trying to build systems to help people share things no one wants for free- or stop thinking trust is the issue when people on Craigslist meet strangers EVERY day when it's worth it to sell a concert ticket... we will be one step closer to solving this important problem!
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Lights, camera, no action! An experimental story...
- Perfectly MINIMUM - Any more would be a waste. Any less... well, how much less can you do than a FB post.
- Perfectly VIABLE - Anyone who truly wanted to borrow this camera for $20 a day would, at LEAST, understand the value proposition and be in a position to act on it.
- Perfectly EXPERIMENTAL - An experiment is defined (by Wikipedia) as "A scientific procedure undertaken to make a discovery, test a hypothesis, or demonstrate a known fact". In this case we were testing a hypothesis: I believed that at least one person would make a comment to reserve and show intent to pay to borrow this camera for at least one day. That was the minimum... I actually believed that with the right amount of page views, that I could have bookings that paid for more than half of the camera's value in 6 months time.
5000 views, 1 share, 5 comments (excluding my own)... = ZERO REQUESTS TO BORROW.
Requests are the true metric in this experiment, followed by payments. The rest are, as Eric Ries says, vanity metrics. The failure of this experiment shows 2 important things...
Requests are the true metric in this experiment, followed by payments. The rest are, as Eric Ries says, vanity metrics. The failure of this experiment shows 2 important things...
- The value of testing and Lean in general - Not only could I have gone through the cost and expense of building an entire social network compete with reservation features, payment features, product listing, etc - I did! I now teach Lean as a way to help other people avoid the same mistakes...
- The fallacy that adding more people to the "funnel" will have an impact on conversion rates. For some reason, smart entrepreneurs have the ability to convince themselves that when something is not working, the solution is to show it to more people. The logic does not hold up. There was no point in figuring out the right distribution channel or the true economics of this venture before figuring out how to get ONE PERSON to pay and convert.
Now, Lean does not teach people to give up after the first experiment. It is possible that this experiment was flawed in ways that I hope the comments reveal. But it is certainly more scientific and much faster to test this hypothesis with a Facebook post than with a full working web platform built from scratch. It is also incredibly empowering for non engineers to be able to run their own experiments.
By the way... it's an experiment... but the camera really is available if you want it! (and ready to pay:)
By the way... it's an experiment... but the camera really is available if you want it! (and ready to pay:)
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Example of premature optimization
Will update the formatting when I can figure it out... but to the Lean folks out there, this is enough:) but :(
50037VISITORS
1679CONVERSIONS
3.36%CONVERSION RATE
Created about a year ago, updated 25 days ago. Last Published 25 days ago.groups landing page Edit Notes »
A/B Test Centre
Current Champion | Weight | Visitors | Views | Conversions | Conversion Rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AE | DT_Form_Press_save3__prpltextCTAUpdated 25 days ago | 8% | 3256 | 5279 | 153 | 4.70% | |
Challenger Page Variants | Confidence | ||||||
| C | The easiest way. Examples. Shitty.Updated about a year ago | 0% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00%-100% | 0% |
| D | smaller and centered, More links, header simplified, photoUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| E | photo instead of gradient, slightly hard to read text?Updated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| F | small and centered, easier to read, example textUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00%-100% | 0% |
| I | u and me in consumeUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| K | u and me in consume copyUpdated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| L | DT 1Updated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| M | DT 2Updated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| N | DT_Button_No Press_money_resources_communityUpdated about a year ago | 1% | 1399 | 2043 | 192 | 13.72%191% | 100% |
| O | DT 1 copyUpdated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| P | small and centered, easier to digest, example text copyUpdated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| Q | DT_Button_v1_PressUpdated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| R | DT_Button_v2_email formUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 75 | 125 | 0 | 0.00%-100% | 0% |
| S | DT_Button_No Press _shareUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 275 | 337 | 41 | 14.91%217% | 100% |
| T | tagline u and meUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 134 | 152 | 15 | 11.19%138% | 99% |
| U | potential. ume. arrows. cleanUpdated about a year ago | 0% |
GIVE THIS VARIANT SOME TRAFFIC
| ||||
| X | public_mail_freebie_nationUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| Y | DT_21%_Press_addedUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| AB | DT_Form_Press_create_search_shareUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 222 | 304 | 36 | 16.22%245% | 100% |
| AC | DT_Form_Press_create_search_share_leftUpdated about a year ago | 1% | 800 | 1225 | 62 | 7.75%64% | 99% |
| AD | DT_Button_Press_1/16Updated about a year ago | 1% | 688 | 1053 | 57 | 8.29%76% | 99% |
| AF | Individual_Need_Have_SaveUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| AI | Dont be a knucklehead. EmailUpdated 4 months ago | 5% | 1898 | 3100 | 49 | 2.58%-45% | 99% |
| AJ | I need a... (with video and press)Updated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00%no delta | 0% |
| AK | videoUpdated about a year ago | 1% | 424 | 830 | 0 | 0.00%-100% | 0% |
| AL | Personal RequestUpdated about a year ago | 1% | 478 | 757 | 20 | 4.18%-10% | 38% |
| AM | I need a (genius)Updated about a year ago | 1% | 504 | 856 | 13 | 2.58%-45% | 96% |
| AN | I need a (search)Updated 5 months ago | 5% | 4202 | 6901 | 105 | 2.50%-46% | 100% |
| AO | I need a (hello)Updated about a year ago | 5% | 2636 | 4158 | 71 | 2.69%-42% | 99% |
| AP | Video / Paid groupsUpdated about a year ago | 1% | 458 | 755 | 0 | 0.00%-100% | 0% |
| AQ | By event not itemUpdated about a year ago | 1% | 606 | 917 | 13 | 2.15%-54% | 99% |
| AV | I need a (search) (challenger) (twitter)Updated about a year ago | 1% | 576 | 873 | 16 | 2.78%-40% | 96% |
| AW | First time.Updated 4 months ago | 5% | 7000 | 11013 | 314 | 4.49%-4% | 37% |
| AX | First time. copyUpdated 10 months ago | 5% | 2753 | 4472 | 62 | 2.25%-52% | 100% |
| AZ | First time. social mediaUpdated about a year ago | 5% | 2262 | 3698 | 30 | 1.33%-71% | 100% |
| BA | design/imageUpdated 6 months ago | 5% | 2857 | 4695 | 94 | 3.29%-29% | 99% |
| BB | need something? just ask [moved]Updated 6 months ago | 2% | 2450 | 4346 | 21 | 0.86%-81% | 100% |
| BC | g'tee simpleUpdated 4 months ago | 1% | 1294 | 2377 | 21 | 1.62%-65% | 100% |
| BD | SIMPLEUpdated 25 days ago | 20% | 8131 | 13616 | 106 | 1.30%-72% | 100% |
| BE | wrong way funnyUpdated 25 days ago | 5% | 2104 | 3453 | 20 | 0.95%-79% | 100% |
| BF | designUpdated 25 days ago | 20% | 914 | 1301 | 3 | 0.33%-93% | 0% |
Discarded Page Variants | |||||||
| A | First VariantUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | |
| H | More links, header simplified, photo copyUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
| V | DT_Button_No Press_create_search_shareUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 467 | 673 | 76 | 16.27% | |
| W | publicUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
| Z | get emailUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
| AA | DT_Button_No Press_constant_contactUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 116 | 157 | 19 | 16.38% | |
| AG | RequestUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
| AH | I need aUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 262 | 388 | 19 | 7.25% | |
| AR | I need a (search) (no email)Updated about a year ago | 0% | 32 | 32 | 9 | 28.13% | |
| AS | I need a (search/request)Updated about a year ago | 0% | 88 | 112 | 4 | 4.54% | |
| AT | I need a (search/request) removed black fieldsUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 97 | 126 | 6 | 6.19% | |
| AU | I need a (hello) verifiedUpdated 5 months ago | 0% | 212 | 358 | 3 | 1.42% | |
| AY | First time. copy copyUpdated about a year ago | 0% | 362 | 503 | 29 | 8.01% | |
| Overall: | 100% | 50037 | 80991 | 1679 | 3.36% | ||
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